Article
Why Dunkelflaute means Britain is heading for an energy supply crunch this weekend
The Telegraph|Eir Nolsoe|December 9, 2022
Wind power contributed just over a quarter of the total electricity generated in Britain over the last few months, according to National Grid data, but that will drop to sharply as “Dunkelflaute” hits. “It’s the first test,” says Tony Jordan from energy consultancy Auxilione. “When there's a lack of wind it puts the rest of the generation under pressure. So we need to turn to other fuels to generate power, mostly gas normally. So it pushes the cost of generation up.” This weekend will be the first real test of how Britain will navigate squeezed supplies of gas this winter, as the war in Ukraine continues to push up prices.
Wind power contributed just over a quarter of the total electricity generated in Britain over the last few months, according to National Grid data, but that will drop to sharply as “Dunkelflaute” hits. “It’s the first test,” says Tony Jordan from energy consultancy Auxilione. “When there's a lack of wind it puts the rest of the generation under pressure. So we need to turn to other fuels to generate power, mostly gas normally. So it pushes the cost of generation up.” This weekend will be the first real test of how Britain will navigate squeezed supplies of gas this winter, as the war in Ukraine continues to push up prices.
Thick, heavy clouds and little to no wind are in the forecast for the UK this weekend. The Germans call this type of weather “Dunkelflaute”, which literally means dark wind stillness or lull. Meteorologists prefer the term anticyclonic gloom.
Such weather conditions are hardly unusual this time of year, but they present a problem: the lack of wind means very little renewable energy will be generated from turbines, at the same time as winter ramps up demand for power as the lights come on earlier.
Wind power contributed just over a quarter of the total electricity generated in Britain over the last few months, according to National Grid data, but that will drop to sharply as “Dunkelflaute” hits.
“It’s the first test,” says Tony …
... more
[truncated due to possible copyright]
Thick, heavy clouds and little to no wind are in the forecast for the UK this weekend. The Germans call this type of weather “Dunkelflaute”, which literally means dark wind stillness or lull. Meteorologists prefer the term anticyclonic gloom.
Such weather conditions are hardly unusual this time of year, but they present a problem: the lack of wind means very little renewable energy will be generated from turbines, at the same time as winter ramps up demand for power as the lights come on earlier.
Wind power contributed just over a quarter of the total electricity generated in Britain over the last few months, according to National Grid data, but that will drop to sharply as “Dunkelflaute” hits.
“It’s the first test,” says Tony Jordan from energy consultancy Auxilione. “When there's a lack of wind it puts the rest of the generation under pressure. So we need to turn to other fuels to generate power, mostly gas normally. So it pushes the cost of generation up.”
This weekend will be the first real test of how Britain will navigate squeezed supplies of gas this winter, as the war in Ukraine continues to push up prices.
The National Grid warned on Wednesday that “margins are expected to be tighter this week, particularly for the next few days”. In other words, the gap between supply and demand for electricity will be uncomfortably small.
There will be more pressure on the system than usual, increasing the likelihood that the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) will have to activate emergency plans to avoid blackouts, such as paying people to use less energy or encouraging large industrial users to ease off on demand.
“We're running the electricity system at the moment on much tighter margins than we have in the past,” says Kathryn Porter, an energy consultant for Watt-Logic.
Generation from wind is expected to fall considerably on Friday, Saturday and especially on Sunday before rebounding on Monday. As a result, the National Grid’s expected surplus will drop to 930 megawatts on Friday and 600 MW on Saturday – well below the 1000 MW benchmark typically considered adequate.
Tom Faulkner from Cornwall Insight says that when energy supply is as tight as it is projected to be this weekend, the market will “correct”: as demand for electricity increases, prices rise and draw more power into the market.