ANALYSIS: German 2013 wind, solar power output up 4% at record 77 TWh

London -- Germany's combined wind and solar power output in 2013 was around 4% higher than the previous year at a record 76.9 TWh, a Platts analysis of the latest available data shows.

Wind power output reached a record 47.2 TWh last year, up 3% or 1.3 TWh from 2012, according to renewables research group IWR.

Solar output increased 6% or 1.7 TWh from 2012 to reach 29.7 TWh for 2013, according to a Spider-Energy analysis of data provided by transmission system operators and published on the EEX transparency platform. Up until November, 2013, wind power output trailed 2012 levels, but a stormy December with more than 7 TWh of wind power output meant new records for both wind and solar power production in Germany, the data shows. Both solar and wind also hit new hourly records in 2013 with wind power output rising for the first time above 26 GW on December 5, while hourly solar output reached 24 GW in July. Strong solar output at times also combined with high wind power output to set a new record for intermittent renewable output above 36 GW on April 18.

Germany's installed wind and and solar capacity is expected to rise above 70 GW in the first half of 2014. Currently, wind capacity is estimated at around 33 GW, while solar PV capacity has risen above 35.5 GW in November.

However, consumers also will have to pay 18% more for subsidies paid to renewable power producers in 2014 through the green levy, which is estimated to pay out some Eur21.5 billion ($29.3 billion) to eligible operators of renewable installations next year.

With lower wholesale prices finally feeding through to consumer prices, the pressure on politicians to act quickly has maybe eased somewhat, but the reform of the EEG renewable energy law remains a priority for the new government, which plans to present a first draft bill by Easter.

PRESSURE ON POWER PRICES REMAINS

German power prices extended their downward trend in 2013 with spot power on average 13% lower than in 2012, while year-ahead prices fell to their lowest level in over eight years due to oversupply from renewable and conventional sources as well as cheaper generation costs and falling demand.

According to Platts data, German day-ahead, over-the-counter power prices for baseload delivery averaged Eur37.51/MWh in 2013.

The average 2013 closing price for OTC year-ahead baseload power was Eur39.06/MWh, down 21% or more than Eur10 from the 2012 average of Eur49.27/MWh.

Power consumption fell 2013 for a third year in a row, down 1.8% year on year at 596 TWh, according to a first estimate from utility lobby group BDEW.

However, domestic power production was little changed compared with the previous year at 629 TWh, German think-tank Agora said.

Based on those estimates, German net power exports reached a new record in 2013 at around 33 TWh.

That number would exceed Germany's total annual solar output of 29.7 TWh, according to the latest available data.

Combined wind and solar output accounted for around 13% of Germany's electricity consumption in 2013 with wind contributing around 8% and solar around 5% based on an annualized average, according to the above data.

Total renewables output including hydro, biomass and other forms of green power generation, accounted for almost 25% of Germany's electricity mix in 2013, Agora said, with no overall official data available yet.

--Andreas Franke, andreas.franke@platts.com