Cal-ISO grapples with renewables glut in the queue
Energy Prospects West|July 19, 2011
Cal-ISO is looking at ways to deal with 71,000 MW of renewable generation in its interconnection queue, which is more than three times the additional renewables capacity needed to meet California's 33-percent renewable energy target.
Cal-ISO is looking at ways to deal with 71,000 MW of renewable generation in its interconnection queue, which is more than three times the additional renewables capacity needed to meet California's 33-percent renewable energy target.
Cal-ISO is looking at ways to deal with 71,000 MW of renewable generation in its interconnection queue, which is more than three times the additional renewables capacity needed to meet California's 33-percent renewable energy target.
The state has about 7,600 MW of renewables capacity in operation, and only an additional 20,000 MW is needed to meet the 33-percent renewables portfolio standard.
More than 33,000 MW of renewables capacity entered the queue in March alone. "If we just studied them under the status-quo process, it would likely mean several new transmission upgrades," said Keith Casey, Cal-ISO vice president of market infrastructure and development, at a July 14 meeting of the Board of Governors. "It's almost a virtual …
... more [truncated due to possible copyright]Cal-ISO is looking at ways to deal with 71,000 MW of renewable generation in its interconnection queue, which is more than three times the additional renewables capacity needed to meet California's 33-percent renewable energy target.
The state has about 7,600 MW of renewables capacity in operation, and only an additional 20,000 MW is needed to meet the 33-percent renewables portfolio standard.
More than 33,000 MW of renewables capacity entered the queue in March alone. "If we just studied them under the status-quo process, it would likely mean several new transmission upgrades," said Keith Casey, Cal-ISO vice president of market infrastructure and development, at a July 14 meeting of the Board of Governors. "It's almost a virtual world where they are assuming we're going to have all these renewables."
To speed the pace of interconnection studies, Cal-ISO studies projects in clusters rather than the old serial (one-by-one) study process. In prior attempts to keep the queue manageable, the grid operator hiked deposits for interconnection studies and folded small-generator interconnection requests (below 20 MW) into a single process with large projects.
Yet in its most recent "cluster study" window -- Cluster 4, which closed March 31 -- Cal-ISO received 200 projects representing more than 33,000 MW of renewables.
For these projects, Casey suggested taking a look at the prior queue and the CPUC's long-term procurement proceeding, which is forecasting the amount of capacity utilities will need to meet the 33-percent RPS [R10-05-006].
From there, the grid operator would estimate a "reasonable amount" of renewable-energy megawatts likely to proceed in certain areas and associated network-upgrade costs. (Following Phase 1 studies, interconnection customers have 90 days to decide to stay in the queue through posting of a financial security deposit for a percentage of their portion of network upgrades. The financial security can reach into the millions.)
"We are not going to make 70,000 MWs renewable. It is more like 20,000 MWs or 18,000 depending on assumptions," Casey said.
He stressed the idea was "preliminary," however, and would require stakeholder input. The idea would not be to limit the queue per se but to provide realistic outlooks on transmission needs and cost responsibility for transmission upgrades -- essentially modeling the fact that many projects could drop out of the queue.
The 7,600 MW of renewable generation now operational in the Cal-ISO area is expected to double in the next few years as solar and wind capacity come on line. By 2020, Cal-ISO estimated the grid would have about 11,000 MW of wind, 7,000 MW of solar photovoltaics, and a few thousand MWs each of solar thermal and geothermal.
"Whether all of the RPS contracts get built is not at all clear, and obviously many in the market think a good portion will not pan out," said Nancy Rader, executive director of the California Wind Energy Association.
Cal-ISO's Bob Emmert, manager of interconnection resources, noted the high amount of solar PV in the queue. Of the 73,000 MW of renewables in the queue, solar PV represents roughly half the capacity and is the dominant technology in the 1-MW to 500-MW size range.
Projects in the 1-MW to 20-MW range, most of which are solar PV, comprise more than 43 percent of all renewables capacity in the queue. More than 77 percent of those projects are exactly 20 MW in size, which Cal-ISO attributed to a size cap for projects that came into the queue using the former small-generator interconnection procedures, which had a lower initial deposit requirement.
Cal-ISO staff has expressed concern that modeling all the renewable generation in the queue could lead to inflated costs to reinforce the transmission system. Following Phase 1 interconnection studies, interconnection customers have 90 days to post an "interconnection financial security" equal to the lesser of 15 percent of their total cost responsibility for network upgrades; $20,000/MW for large generators; or $7.5 million, but no less than $500,000. Financial security requirements increase following Phase 2 studies.
Cal-ISO is in the advanced stages of a Generator Interconnection Procedures II initiative. Topics addressed include triggers for financial security postings; partial project termination; the fast-track process; and maximum cost responsibility.
A presentation on the initiative was held July 7.