Opinions
When wind power is a very small part of a utilities power supply, the ups and downs in supply caused by changes in the weather are similar to the noise caused by ups and downs in customer demand. These are easily managed just by raising and lowering the power output at the utilities other power plants.
But when wind power becomes a more significant percentage of the total power supply, the ups and downs are not easily managed. On days when the wind does not blow, the utility has to have backup sources of supply. Each time they add more wind capacity, they also have to add a backup power generator for times when wind power is not available. These backup systems are expensive and have to be added to the utilities cost base, which raises the cost of electricity. In any case, wind power will not be able to replace all of the base load capacity for a utility. (Base load is what generates power 24 hours per day and is typically always producing power. Base load today is typically large coal and natural gas fired power plants plus nuclear plants.)
Backup systems also have the problem of taking a considerable amount of time to bring on-line. Texas, which produces the most wind power of any state, had to drop some customers because it did not forecast a drop in wind power that reduced its production of electricity by 1.1 Giga Watts in a 10 minute period.
The production of wind power could be shared by many utilities over a large area. This would smooth out the production to some extent, but also increases costs because more transmission lines have to be built. Building transmission lines to extend power over large areas takes a long time and is also very expensive.
Power storage systems are another way to manage fluctuating power production. When excess power is produced in off-peak times, power is stored. The power is then released during peak times, thus smoothing out production over time. This greatly reduces capital costs for the utility, thus reducing electric rates for consumers. Most large power storage systems that I am aware of use water pump-back systems. The utility pumps large quantities from a lake uphill to another lake during off-peak times. During peak times, the water is released from the upper lake to power turbines that convert the kinetic energy back into electricity. This does not work for states that don't have places with reasonable elevation gains.
In the future, new ways of managing power production and demand will be needed for utilities to produce electricity with wind power. Other power storage systems like compressed gas, hydrogen electrolysis, batteries, or maybe large capacitors may be used. These technologies have not been developed yet or are not commercially feasible.
Another way to manage the fluctuations is by managing customer demand. If a utility could change the price of power to consumers to better reflect its availability, the consumers may be able to match their consumption to changing power availability. For example, you buy an electric car and program it to buy power at only the cheap rates. When rates go up it stops charging. If rates go up really high, it might even sell power back to the utility thus making a profit between low and high rates. Other appliances like clothes dryers and air conditioners may be programmed to either cut off or reduce consumption at times of high costs.
The technology for managing power consumption is actually more advanced than trying to store electric power. The internet could be used to transmit power information from the utility to consumers, and even individual consumer devices. Programmable appliances could be easily built with existing technology. I look for businesses to develop that will help manage electric demand and this might be a good place to look for investment opportunities.
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