Opinions
SO now at last we have one absolute clear point of difference as Kevin 'Mini-me' Rudd morphs into Kevin 'Algore', the man who used to be the next prime minister of Australia.
The 'Mini-me' Rudd merely echoed 'me too' to whatever position was taken by the 'evil genius', John Howard.
A picture speaks a thousand words. Fortunately Rudd did not try to literally embrace Al Gore. Figuratively, he was all over him.
This born again 'Algore' Rudd thereby promises to destroy the Australian economy.
By first jumping on board the Titanic of international treaties, Kyoto; just before it slides beneath the metaphorical waves. Or perhaps more -- politically -- correctly, the rising sea levels.
And then embracing the aspirational fantasy targets of massive greenhouse gas emissions.
If we stopped Australia stone dead now, we would find it impossible to cut those emissions by 50 per cent over the next 40 years as 'aspirationally' committed by Rudd.
Unless we were prepared to literally return to the trees and mud huts. Factor in growth -- of both the economy and people -- and not even that would be sufficient.
ABS figures yesterday showed the population expanded by a record 307,000 in the year to March.
CommSec chief economist Craig James zeroed in on how this explained Australia's apparent housing crisis. Very simply, construction of new homes was not keeping pace with our soaring population.
But what about construction of new power stations?
The energy needed, again simply, to build all those homes and supply the associated services. And then to supply the extra 300,000 people with their daily needs, to say nothing of some form of energy used in their work.
Over the next 13 years out to the manana 2020 universally used as the first aspirational target date, on those numbers at a conservative estimate Australia's population will have increased by four million. And energy demand commensurately.
New South Wales and Queensland are already staring at the abyss. They build more power stations or they face black-outs. And the choice is coal or, well, coal.
What about renewables that both the 'evil genius' and, in this specific narrow context, his 'Mini-me' have committed to?
Well, there are essentially four, read two. In theory, hydro, geothermal, wind and solar. Assuming you don't count fast-breeder nuclear as a 'renewable'.
But even if so, still in 'practice' only two: wind and solar. Does anyone feel a (serious) dam coming on?
However, even if you go for wind and solar, you still have to build the coal-fired power stations - and operate them -- as 'back-up.
Germany's E.ON Netz operates the grid which has one of the biggest 'feed-in' wind power sources in Europe. Each year it produces a WindReport. The latest makes interesting, sober, reading.
Germany has 18,300MW (megawatts) of installed wind capacity -- close to half Australia's total installed electricity generation capacity, about double Victoria's.
E.ON Netz draws on 7600MW of that.
In the precise German way, it tells us that maximum feed-in was 6234MW at 9am on 15/12/05.
Sound great? Except when you read the minimum feed in, at 12.15pm on 27/05/05. Just 8MW. And no, I'm not missing a nought or two.
Some 7600MW of installed capacity delivered just 8MW. When the wind don't blow, the electricity don't flow.
On average across the year, the 7600 MW of installed wind capacity produced 1327MW. That's an operational level of 18 per cent of capacity. In rational terms, it's insanity.
Indeed as E.ON Netz notes, installed wind capacity went up 12 per cent in the year but actual wind power fed in to the grid went up just 1.5 per cent. Because of lower "wind availability".
The way you 'solve' this is that 'traditional' power stations with capacities equal to 90 per cent of the installed wind power capacity must be permanently on line to guarantee power supply.
So not only do you have to install six to seven times as much wind capacity as the output you will actually get, but you also have to build 'shadow' coal/gas/nuclear(?) as well.
That's one power station for the cost of 12 or so.
Did I say insanity? Unless you can build big enough batteries to store the power generated when the wind does blow.
Funny I should say that. E.ON has actually pioneered exactly such a battery. It's the size of four shipping containers, uses 'undisclosed' chemicals and can produce all of 1MW for four hours.
So not only do we have to have windmills blanketing the country-side, but millions of 'super-batteries' as well. Plus some new coal stations anyway.
This is one side of the 'Algore' Rudd insanity. Turning off the power to Australians.
What about our exports? With over half of existing exports and almost all future growth based on digging up stuff and shipping it to China, in particular.
Quite apart from the energy used in that process, what about what happens when it gets there?
Iron ore doesn't miraculously turn into steel. It does so by chewing up a lot of coal directly, and additional power as well.
So if our local 'Algore' actually wants to cut our contribution to emissions, he is going to have to cut our mining industry off at the knees.
Or is this at core just another sign of the real Rudd? Still and always 'Mini-me'. Just shifting as, to coin a phrase, the wind blows; from, to coin another, drawing his energy from one 'evil genius' to another.
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