Key Energy Issues to 2025

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in preparing model forecasts for its Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005), evaluated a wide range of current trends and issues that could have major implications for U.S. energy markets over the 20-year forecast period, from 2005 to 2025. Trends in energy supply and demand are linked with such unpredictable factors as the performance of the U.S. economy overall, advances in technologies related to energy production and consumption, annual changes in weather patterns, and future public policy decisions [see endnote 1 on page 8]. Among the most important issues identified as having the potential to affect the complex behavior of the domestic energy economy, oil prices and natural gas supply were considered to be of particular significance in increasing the uncertainty associated with the AEO2005 reference case projections.

A necessary step in any attempt to understand the outlook for US energy supply and demand

Comments by Glenn Schleede for The owners and members of Associated Electric Cooperative, Incorporated At their 2004 Annual Meeting in St. Louis, Missouri

U.S. energy flow trends as of 2002

Eric Rosenbloom comments:" In the U.S. 61.5% of the energy used is 'lost', i.e. only 38.5% of the energy consumed is actually extracted."

Mr. Linderman's presentation to the Annual Conference of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

Topics addressed:

(1)uncertainly over future natural gas prices

(2)the value of long-term fixed-price contracts for renewable energy

(3)what impact do renewables have on gas prices?

(4)what impact do high gas prices have on renewables?

Government agencies and the wind industry have successfully portrayed wind-generated electricity as "green" and as a price-competitive, potentially significant alternative source of power which could reduce dependence on 'dirty' fuels. While wind generated electricity may make sense in some circumstances, industry and government claims for its widespread use are not currently supported by sound science or economic analysis of costs v. benefits.

Hundreds of thousands of acres spanning 34 states in the US have already been impacted by industrial wind power development. As we speak, thousands of giant turbines grind away, and TOGETHER they'll take the next 25 years to generate electricity that may last for a total of 19 days.

Wind energy is growing rapidly because environmentalists think it has environmental benefits and the government has given it large tax incentives. But electricity consumers who want reliable delivery and who are truly concerned about the environment should question this preferential treatment. Wind energy is environmentally harmful and costly to taxpayers. Furthermore, its expansion could adversely affect the nation's electricity transmission system.

Several detailed technical investigations of grid ancillary service impacts of wind power plants in the United States have recently been performed. These studies were applied to Xcel Energy (in Minnesota) and PacifiCorp and the Bonneville Power Administration (both in the northwestern United States). Although the approaches vary, three utility time frames appear to be most at issue: regulation, load following, and unit commitment. This paper describes and compares the analytic frameworks from recent analysis and discusses the implications and cost estimates of wind integration. The findings of these studies indicate that relatively large-scale wind generation will have an impact on power system operation and costs, but these impacts and costs are relatively low at penetration rates that are expected over the next several years.