This report is the first draft RNA prepared by the New York Independent System Operator. This document represents the first in a series of annual CRPP plans designed to address the long-term reliability of the New York State bulk power system. This RNA consists of this document and the supporting documents and appendices attached hereto. Just as important as the electric system plan is the process of planning itself. Electric system planning is an ongoing process of evaluating, monitoring and updating as conditions warrant. In addition to addressing reliability, the CRPP is also designed to provide information that is both informative and of value to the New York wholesale electricity marketplace. A full description of the Comprehensive Reliability Planning Process is contained in Section 2 of the Supporting Document.

Reliability Needs

This reliability needs assessment for the New York State bulk-power1 baseline system for the first Five Year period indicates that the forecasted system does not meet reliability criteria. Therefore, because of continued load growth and no resource additions, the second Five Year period does not meet reliability criteria. Load growth in excess of two percent per year which totals almost 5,000 MW in Southeast New York State (SENY), defined as load zones G-K, with the minimal addition of approximately 1250 MW of net new generating capacity in that area over the last ten years, has led to increasing dependence on the transmission system to meet capacity and energy needs in SENY. The demands that are increasingly being placed on the transmission system in conjunction with other system changes, consisting primarily of generating unit retirements listed in table 1, neighboring system changes, and load growth have and will continue to result in voltage criteria violations at much lower transfer levels than had been previously observed. The result is that transfers into SENY will be limited by voltage constraints rather than thermal constraints. This reduced capability to make power transfers to SENY due to these voltage constraints, coupled with continuing load growth in SENY results in a resource adequacy criterion violation as early as 2008. Below are the major findings of the Reliability Needs Assessment:

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